Three-quarters of Great Power

Three-quarters of Great Power transitions since 1500 have culminated with, or involved, a highly destructive period of direct Great Power war.9 War between Great Powers during times of relative transition is not inevitable, but it is a persistent threat. Nuclear weapons may have reduced the risk of Great Power armed conflict, but they have not eliminated that prospect entirely. The risks are growing in an era where an increasing number of nations have nuclear weapons and perceive their use as for more than just deterrence of a nuclear strike by a rival.10 Great ufabet